Hungary duck curve: residual load by hour, 2020 to 2026

Hungary has a duck curve. On April to September days, midday residual load (load minus public solar and wind, 12:00 to 14:00) fell from 3,958 MW in 2020 to 843 MW in 2026. The evening level (19:00 to 21:00) held between 4,918 MW and 5,396 MW, so the evening ramp grew from 961 MW to 4,430 MW.

The figures come from the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity (ENTSO-E), fed by Hungary's transmission operator, MAVIR. The public solar series (reported to ENTSO-E by MAVIR) covers utility-scale plants and leaves out most household and other small rooftop systems, so solar figures here are lower than total solar output. The study on why published Hungarian solar capacity figures differ has the detail. Yearly extremes cover calendar years, with 2026 running to 30 September. The hourly profiles cover April to September of each year.

What is a duck curve, and why does Hungary have one?

A duck curve is the daily shape of residual load, also called net load. Residual load is the demand left for other power plants after variable solar and wind output is subtracted. It dips at midday and climbs steeply in the evening.

The term comes from the California Independent System Operator (CAISO). Its duck curve fact sheet defines net load as forecast load minus expected output from variable generation. It describes a "belly" in the mid-afternoon that ramps up to an "arch" like the neck of a duck. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) dates the CAISO chart to 2013 and notes that its own analysts described a similar load shape in 2008.

Hungary now shows the same shape. Average public solar output in the 11:00 to 12:00 hour was 755 MW in 2020 and 3,265 MW in 2026. In the 20:00 to 21:00 hour it was 2 MW and 23 MW, and wind averaged 64 MW and 65 MW. Evening demand therefore falls on other plants and on imports. The load and generation series come from the ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.

Hungary's duck curve, April to September

Average residual load (load minus public solar and wind generation) in each Budapest clock hour, April to September. 2026 covers April to September 2026.

2020202220242026

23:00 to 00:00

20204,338 MW

20224,606 MW

20244,694 MW

20264,797 MW

02,0004,0006,000

Residual load, 00:00 to 01:00 to 23:00 to 00:00. 2020, latest 4,338 MW. 2022, latest 4,606 MW. 2024, latest 4,694 MW. 2026, latest 4,797 MW.

Residual load

Hour	2020	2022	2024	2026
00:00 to 01:00	4,053 MW	4,300 MW	4,355 MW	4,461 MW
01:00 to 02:00	3,842 MW	4,086 MW	4,111 MW	4,169 MW
02:00 to 03:00	3,668 MW	3,926 MW	3,950 MW	4,014 MW
03:00 to 04:00	3,610 MW	3,876 MW	3,905 MW	3,981 MW
04:00 to 05:00	3,647 MW	3,922 MW	3,958 MW	4,033 MW
05:00 to 06:00	3,770 MW	4,051 MW	4,061 MW	4,106 MW
06:00 to 07:00	4,144 MW	4,372 MW	4,211 MW	4,066 MW
07:00 to 08:00	4,313 MW	4,355 MW	3,836 MW	3,316 MW
08:00 to 09:00	4,219 MW	4,027 MW	3,091 MW	2,210 MW
09:00 to 10:00	4,120 MW	3,693 MW	2,414 MW	1,344 MW
10:00 to 11:00	4,028 MW	3,432 MW	1,942 MW	889 MW
11:00 to 12:00	3,999 MW	3,324 MW	1,797 MW	734 MW
12:00 to 13:00	3,986 MW	3,329 MW	1,798 MW	791 MW
13:00 to 14:00	3,929 MW	3,337 MW	1,852 MW	895 MW
14:00 to 15:00	3,964 MW	3,467 MW	2,080 MW	1,091 MW
15:00 to 16:00	4,104 MW	3,741 MW	2,555 MW	1,549 MW
16:00 to 17:00	4,298 MW	4,118 MW	3,250 MW	2,325 MW
17:00 to 18:00	4,488 MW	4,510 MW	4,057 MW	3,410 MW
18:00 to 19:00	4,694 MW	4,942 MW	4,852 MW	4,587 MW
19:00 to 20:00	4,887 MW	5,234 MW	5,342 MW	5,235 MW
20:00 to 21:00	4,950 MW	5,304 MW	5,450 MW	5,312 MW
21:00 to 22:00	4,804 MW	5,133 MW	5,259 MW	5,146 MW
22:00 to 23:00	4,539 MW	4,839 MW	4,944 MW	4,992 MW
23:00 to 00:00	4,338 MW	4,606 MW	4,694 MW	4,797 MW

Show the data table

Hour (Budapest time)	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
00:00	4,053	4,348	4,300	4,180	4,355	4,290	4,461
01:00	3,842	4,133	4,086	3,966	4,111	3,998	4,169
02:00	3,668	3,962	3,926	3,805	3,950	3,852	4,014
03:00	3,610	3,908	3,876	3,756	3,905	3,813	3,981
04:00	3,647	3,955	3,922	3,805	3,958	3,877	4,033
05:00	3,770	4,090	4,051	3,913	4,061	3,969	4,106
06:00	4,144	4,452	4,372	4,142	4,211	4,005	4,066
07:00	4,313	4,536	4,355	3,938	3,836	3,406	3,316
08:00	4,219	4,322	4,027	3,374	3,091	2,467	2,210
09:00	4,120	4,104	3,693	2,852	2,414	1,697	1,344
10:00	4,028	3,927	3,432	2,461	1,942	1,269	889
11:00	3,999	3,871	3,324	2,286	1,797	1,126	734
12:00	3,986	3,882	3,329	2,276	1,798	1,105	791
13:00	3,929	3,866	3,337	2,300	1,852	1,117	895
14:00	3,964	3,947	3,467	2,503	2,080	1,338	1,091
15:00	4,104	4,142	3,741	2,877	2,555	1,794	1,549
16:00	4,298	4,430	4,118	3,424	3,250	2,523	2,325
17:00	4,488	4,726	4,510	4,041	4,057	3,477	3,410
18:00	4,694	5,033	4,942	4,660	4,852	4,522	4,587
19:00	4,887	5,280	5,234	5,061	5,342	5,151	5,235
20:00	4,950	5,329	5,304	5,172	5,450	5,284	5,312
21:00	4,804	5,160	5,133	5,000	5,259	5,105	5,146
22:00	4,539	4,875	4,839	4,710	4,944	4,824	4,992
23:00	4,338	4,652	4,606	4,475	4,694	4,645	4,797

Source: Actual generation, load and scheduled cross-border trade for Hungary, ENTSO-E Transparency Platform via the Energy-Charts API

In the 12:00 to 13:00 hour, average residual load was 3,986 MW in 2020, 3,329 MW in 2022, 1,798 MW in 2024 and 791 MW in 2026. In the 20:00 to 21:00 hour it was 4,950 MW, 5,304 MW, 5,450 MW and 5,312 MW. The lowest hour in 2026 is 11:00 to 12:00, at 734 MW.

How fast has the evening ramp grown?

The evening ramp is the rise in residual load from the midday trough to the evening level. It grew from 961 MW in 2020 to 4,430 MW in 2026, and it rose in every year between.

The evening ramp, year by year

How much residual load rises from midday (12:00 to 14:00) to the evening peak (19:00 to 21:00), April to September averages, in MW.

Average2,7522,752MW2020 to 2026, April to September

02,0004,0006,000

Evening ramp, 2020 to 2026, April to September

Year	Evening ramp
2020	961 MW
2021	1,431 MW
2022	1,936 MW
2023	2,828 MW
2024	3,571 MW
2025	4,107 MW
2026	4,430 MW

Year	Midday residual load (MW)	Evening residual load (MW)	Ramp (MW)	Lowest residual load in the year (MW)
2020	3,958	4,918	961	2,432
2021	3,874	5,304	1,431	1,895
2022	3,333	5,269	1,936	1,836
2023	2,288	5,116	2,828	140
2024	1,825	5,396	3,571	-126
2025	1,111	5,218	4,107	-936
2026 (to September)	843	5,274	4,430	-948

Source: Actual generation, load and scheduled cross-border trade for Hungary, ENTSO-E Transparency Platform via the Energy-Charts API

The ramp was 1,431 MW in 2021, 1,936 MW in 2022, 2,828 MW in 2023, 3,571 MW in 2024 and 4,107 MW in 2025. The largest yearly step is from 2022 to 2023.

The midday side drives the change. Midday residual load fell every year, from 3,958 MW in 2020 to 843 MW in 2026. The evening side moved little by comparison, because solar output is small after the afternoon (151 MW at 19:00 to 20:00 and 23 MW at 20:00 to 21:00 in 2026). Average load in the 20:00 to 21:00 hour was 5,016 MW in 2020 and 5,401 MW in 2026.

How low does residual load go, and how often does it fall below Paks output?

In this dataset, residual load first turned negative in 2024, and the lowest quarter-hour so far is -948 MW (25 May 2026). A negative value means public solar and wind alone produced more than the whole load in that quarter-hour.

All seven yearly minimums fell on a Saturday, a Sunday or a public holiday, when business demand is lower. Easter Monday, 1 May and Whit Monday are public holidays under section 102 of the Hungarian Labour Code.

The Paks nuclear power plant has four units of 500 MW each, 2,000 MW in total, according to its operator, MVM Paks Nuclear Power Plant Ltd. (MVM Paks). This study counts every quarter-hour in which residual load was below the plant's actual output in that same quarter-hour. The share was 0% in 2020, 2021 and 2022, then 3.4% in 2023, 6.8% in 2024, 12.5% in 2025 and 17.1% in January to September 2026.

Quarter-hours when residual load fell below nuclear output

Share of all quarter-hours in which load minus public solar and wind was lower than the output of the Paks nuclear plant.

Average6.06.0%2020 to 2026

0.05.010.015.020.0

Share of quarter-hours, 2020 to 2026

Year	Share of quarter-hours
2020	0.0 %
2021	0.0 %
2022	0.0 %
2023	3.4 %
2024	6.8 %
2025	12.5 %
2026 (January to September)	17.1 %

Year	Share of quarter-hours (%)
2020	0
2021	0
2022	0
2023	3.4
2024	6.8
2025	12.5
2026 (to September)	17.1

Source: Actual generation, load and scheduled cross-border trade for Hungary, ENTSO-E Transparency Platform via the Energy-Charts API

This line matters because below it, public solar, wind and Paks together produce more than the system uses. The surplus must be exported, curtailed (solar or wind switched down), stored, or taken out of Paks's output. Other generation that runs regardless of price adds to supply, so the line marks where the pressure starts, not a hard limit.

MVM Paks lists eight scheduled cuts between 23 May and 27 September 2026 for energy that could not be sold, normally because of low prices. They were 38 to 104 MW each (about 2% to 5% of 2,000 MW) and fell in daytime on weekends or public holidays, so they barely affect the below-Paks share. The 46 MW cut on 25 May ran 13:00 to 15:00, after that day's minimum of -948 MW at 11:15. River-related cuts were far larger: 243 MW on 27 June and a further 320 MW on 28 June. In August, as the Danube fell, units 1, 3 and 4 shut down while unit 2 ran at 50% for 11 days. The test uses actual output, so these cuts lower the line, and the 2026 share covers only nine months, so it is not like-for-like with full years.

How high do solar peaks go, and how much of load does solar cover?

The highest quarter-hour of public solar output rose from 1,038 MW in 2020 to 4,449 MW in 2026. In 2025 and 2026, a single quarter-hour of public solar output was larger than total load: 139% in 2025 and 132.6% in 2026.

Solar peaks by year

Highest quarter-hour of public solar generation, and the highest share of load it covered in a single quarter-hour.

Year	Peak solar (MW)	Peak share of load (%)
2020	1,038	26.6
2021	1,485	40.4
2022	1,859	47.8
2023	2,731	94.4
2024	3,347	96
2025	4,076	139
2026 (to September)	4,449	132.6

Source: Actual generation, load and scheduled cross-border trade for Hungary, ENTSO-E Transparency Platform via the Energy-Charts API

A share above 100% means public solar alone produced more than the load measured in that quarter-hour. The peaks of output and of share fall on different days. Output peaked in summer: 4,076 MW on 1 July 2025 at 13:15 and 4,449 MW on 13 August 2026 at 12:15. The highest share came on spring holidays: 21 April 2025 at 13:15 (Easter Monday) and 25 May 2026 at 11:15 (Whit Monday). All seven yearly highest-share quarter-hours fell on a Sunday or a public holiday.

Over a whole month, public solar covers less. The monthly share is public solar generation in the month divided by load in the month. The highest monthly share is 30.9%, in June 2025. The highest month of 2026 so far is May, at 29.8%.

Does the solar series include rooftop and household solar?

Mostly not. The public solar series (reported to ENTSO-E by MAVIR) covers utility-scale plants and leaves out most household and other small rooftop systems, so solar figures here are lower than total solar output. Hungary's Ministry of Energy said in October 2025 that complete data on household-scale plants were not yet available. MAVIR's data page now lists separate household and self-consumption series that this study does not use.

Rooftop output used on site never passes the grid meter, so it lowers measured load instead of appearing as generation. Average midday load fell from 4,781 MW in 2020 to 4,050 MW in 2026, and the data cannot show how much of that is rooftop. If measured load already excludes that output, residual load is right. If it still counts that consumption, true midday residual load is lower. The real duck is never shallower than the chart.

How this analysis was done

The data comes from the Energy-Charts application programming interface (API), run by the Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems (Fraunhofer ISE). It republishes actual generation per production type and total load for Hungary from the ENTSO-E Transparency Platform, in MW at 15-minute resolution. Energy-Charts labels its production charts as net generation of power plants for the public power supply. The analysis covers 1 January 2020 to 30 September 2026 in Budapest time (Central European Time in winter, Central European Summer Time in summer).

Data refreshed: 10 October 2026. This study describes the public series for the Hungarian system as measured; it does not estimate prices, returns or the size of any project.

Public solar data starts in September 2019, so 2019 is excluded. Sources and licences for all studies are on the methods page. The two datasets behind this study, the hourly profiles and the monthly solar share, are listed at the top of this page as downloadable comma-separated (CSV) files.

The ramp is calculated before rounding, so in 2021 and 2026 it differs by 1 MW from the difference of the rounded midday and evening values. The limits of the analysis are these:

• The solar series is the public series, with most household and other small rooftop output missing, as explained above.
• Wind and solar values may be estimates: the EU transparency rules ask for "actual or estimated" generation per bidding zone.
• The ramp is the gap between two averages. It is not the steepest climb in any single hour or quarter-hour.
• Yearly figures for 2026 cover nine months.
• The Paks line moves with the plant's actual output.
• The dip combines solar, wind, weather and demand changes. The study does not adjust for weather or demand.
• Imports, exports and prices are not analysed here. The imports by hour study and the negative quarter-hours study cover them.

What this means for storage, flexible plants, grid operators and investors

Storage and flexible demand

Storage is one of several tools that CAISO and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) name for moving midday surplus into the evening. In the 2026 profile, residual load is lowest between 10:00 and 14:00 (734 MW at 11:00 to 12:00) and highest between 19:00 and 21:00 (5,312 MW at 20:00 to 21:00). Test a site's own load or output profile against those two windows, using the hourly profile file at the top of this page.

Flexible plants and imports

The gap between the midday and evening levels was 4,430 MW in summer 2026 (average residual load); this study does not show which plants, imports or storage filled it. The imports by hour study is the place to read cross-border flows hour by hour. The EIA notes, for California, that fewer running hours also weigh on the economics of conventional plants. Owners of dispatchable plants can compare their own run hours with the midday and evening levels in the ramp table.

Grid operators

The share of quarter-hours below Paks output was 3.4% in 2023 and 17.1% in January to September 2026. In each of those quarter-hours the surplus must be exported, curtailed or stored, so the trend is a planning marker for interconnector, curtailment and storage needs. The grid inertia explainer covers frequency stability when solar displaces conventional plants at midday.

Investors and developers

The highest monthly public solar share is 30.9% (June 2025), and the highest single quarter-hour share is 139%. New solar output lands in a midday that already shows surplus: 17.1% of quarter-hours in 2026 were below the Paks line. Compare a project's expected midday output with those quarter-hours, and read the negative quarter-hours study for the price side. The evening level has stayed at or above 4,918 MW in every year, which is the demand that flexible capacity serves.